Geopolitics

Globalisation Fracturing: A Playbook For IFCs

International Tax Planning

Geoff Cook

Mourant Consulting and Quilter Cheviot International

Recent market events have seen conventional geopolitical and economic wisdom being shaken to the core, and International Finance Centres (IFCs) find themselves navigating an increasingly fractured and uncertain world. Gone are the days of predictable multilateralism and steady capital flows. In its place, a new era is emerging—one defined by economic nationalism, great power rivalry, and transactional statecraft.

Trump Unleashed

With characteristic bravura, Trump's storming second term has displayed all the nuance of a wrecking ball. The grand MAGA bargain has seen a doubling down on protectionism, deregulation, and America First. A reeling global order is responding in kind, sharpening the contours of a geopolitical landscape that is volatile and fragmented.

Washington has wasted no time wielding tariffs as both a blunt instrument of economic coercion and a key lever of domestic industrial policy. China and the EU have been hit hard by tariffs and further threats of sweeping duties on technology, automotive, and energy imports. Meanwhile, the Paris Climate Agreement has been jettisoned again, paving the way for a full-throttle US oil and gas production expansion. Defence guarantees have become bargaining chips as NATO allies are pressured to "pay their way" or face a withdrawal of Washington's security backstop. Multilateral institutions—from the UN to the World Trade Organisation to the IMF—a…