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Lord Lilly: If we leave the EU without a Brexit deal we could end up £40billion better off


Added on 15/08/2018

(The Sun) -- FOR two years I have advised businesses to prepare for Brexit assuming there would be no UK/EU trade agreement.

A trade deal would be the best outcome, but the Chequers plan is moribund and the agreement offered by the EU in March unacceptable bec­ause the “Irish backstop” means splitting the UK.

A likely No Deal would be a good fallback with a better deal possible later.

Leaving without a trade deal would see us trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms.

Far from “falling off a cliff”, the EU will have to offer us the most fav­our­ed terms its other leading trading partners enjoy.

There would be winners and losers, but applying tariffs to European imports would leave enough to compensate the losers.

Second, without a trade deal, parliament will reject any withdrawal deal offering the EU £40billion — leaving Britain £40billion better off and without our annual contribution.

If the EU tried to punish us, it would contravene its constitution, the WTO treaty and the new trade facilitation treaty.

Freed from constraints of EU membership, we could negotiate our new relationship as equals.